La fin du Pakistan ?

NEW DELHI – Le Pakistan est aujourd’hui à un tournant. Survivra-t-il aux nombreux écueils sur son chemin – tel le récent assassinat du gouverneur du Pendjab, Salman Taseer, par l’un de ses gardes du corps, un islamiste fanatique – ou sombrera-t-il ? Pour le reste du monde, le destin du Pakistan est une question pressante, voire existentielle. Il ne faut pas oublier que le Pakistan est une puissance régionale dotée de l’arme nucléaire et un vivier de terroristes.

Les origines de l’instabilité du Pakistan sont anciennes. A la suite des Première et Seconde guerres mondiales, les puissances européennes et les Etats-Unis, au cours de tractations lointaines, ont tracé des frontières imaginaires qui ont donné naissance à l’Irak, à Israël, au Koweït, à la Jordanie et à l’Arabie saoudite – et par voie de conséquence à la plupart des maux actuels du Moyen-Orient. Cette nouvelle donne géopolitique était basée sur l’idée que les caractéristiques fondamentales de « l’Asie musulmane » pouvaient être gommées en les remplaçant par le modèle d’État-nation occidental. Mais les États ainsi formés n’ont dans l’ensemble jamais trouvé de cohésion en tant que nation.

En 1947, le sous-continent indien a lui aussi été soumis au même genre d’opération, avec l’ablation d’une entité pour des raisons religieuses : le Pakistan. Il est bien sûr futile à ce stade de revenir sur cette folie tragique. Les conséquences de la partition sont toutefois bien vivaces : à ce jour, le Pakistan n’a jamais pu se doter d’un gouvernement administrativement crédible. En fait, si le fondateur du Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, avait raison en disant que les musulmans formaient une nation distincte, le Bangladesh n’aurait pas à son tour fait scission et les relations du Pakistan avec l’Afghanistan voisin ne seraient pas faites d’intrigues et de violences.

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