Tim Brinton

Der todesverachtende Dollar

BERKELEY: Die Blogosphäre brummt mit Gerüchten über den sich abzeichnenden Niedergang des Dollars. Der Greenback ist gegenüber dem Euro seit Anfang Sommer um nahezu 15% gefallen. Die Notenbanken haben, so heißt es, ihre Dollarakkumulation zugunsten anderer Währungen zurückgefahren. Laut einer sensationellen, wenn auch unbelegten Story konspirieren die Golfstaaten mit China, Russland, Japan und Frankreich – da haben wir doch mal eine seltsame Koalition –, um den Ölpreis vom Dollar abzukoppeln.

Ökonomen haben keine Schwierigkeiten, die Schwäche des Dollars nachträglich zu erklären. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass die amerikanischen Haushalte mehr sparen, um ihre Altersvorsorge wieder aufzubauen, muss das Land mehr exportieren. Und um amerikanische Waren für ausländische Verbraucher attraktiver zu machen, bedarf es eines schwachen Dollars.

Darüber hinaus hat die Ernüchterung über die ausgeklügelten Finanzinstrumente, auf deren Ausgabe und Vertrieb amerikanische Finanzinstitute sich spezialisiert haben, zur Folge, dass weniger ausländisches Kapital in die USA fließt. Geringere Verkäufe amerikanischer Vermögenswerte an Ausländer bedeuten ebenfalls einen schwächeren Dollar. Die Prognostiker schreiben nun die vergangenen Entwicklungen in die Zukunft fort und sagen eine weitere Abschwächung des Dollars vorher.

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