Tim Brinton

Dolar vzdorující smrti

BERKELEY V blogosféře se to jen hemží zprávami o rýsujícím se úpadku dolaru. Od začátku léta totiž tato šustivá zelená měna ztratila vůči euru téměř 15%. Centrální banky navíc údajně zpomalily hromadění dolarových rezerv ve prospěch jiných měn. Podle jedné senzační, byť nedoložené zprávy se dokonce státy Perského zálivu spikly s Čínou, Ruskem, Japonskem a Francií – tomu se tedy říká nesourodá koalice – a dohodly se, že přestanou oceňovat ropu v dolarech.

Ekonomům nedělá problémy vysvětlovat slabost dolaru ex post. Protože musí americké domácnosti více spořit, aby zotavily své penzijní účty, musí země více vyvážet. Slabší dolar je tedy potřebný, aby bylo americké zboží atraktivnější pro zahraniční spotřebitele.

Kvůli rozčarování z komplikovaných nástrojů, na jejichž vymýšlení a distribuci se americké finanční instituce specializují, navíc do Spojených států proudí méně zahraničního kapitálu. A méně nákupů amerických aktiv zahraničními subjekty rovněž znamená slabší dolar. Pokud tedy prognostici extrapolují minulost do budoucnosti, je výsledkem předpověď, že dolar bude dále klesat.

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