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乐观主义者的时间表

西雅图——“乐观主义”和“现实主义”往往被用来形容两种截然不同的人生观。 但我认为现实的评估人类状况必须具备乐观的世界观。我特别看好技术创新改善全世界最贫困民众生活的潜能。这个信念一直支持我走到今天。

即便如此,现实仍然在特定的技术和全球发展领域拖累了我的乐观:手机未能像预想的那样为发展中国家的生活带来现实的改变。十年前,很多人相信移动设备在非洲普及将带来数字赋权的快速飞跃。但现实并未如人们所愿。数字赋权是一个长期持续的过程,移动技术的存在本身并不能立即改变穷人们怎样满足基本需要。

但现在经过多年的投资,由于各种因素的综合作用,数字赋权正经历着蓬勃发展。这其中包括日益完备的网络覆盖、功能更强的设备以及不断扩展的软件清单。随着越来越多人用上更好更便宜的数字技术,终于达到了提供银行和医疗保健服务的好处明显超过相应成本的盈利拐点。企业愿意为建设新系统进行投资,而用户也能够接受改变行为模式的过渡成本。

25 years of the World's Opinion Page

Project Syndicate celebrates its 25th anniversary with PS 25, a collection of our hardest-hitting commentaries so far.

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Project Syndicate celebrates its 25th anniversary with PS 25, a collection of our hardest-hitting commentaries so far.

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https://prosyn.org/sXsNet8/zh;
  1. sierakowski47_Carsten KoallGetty Images_kyczynskiangryshadow Carsten Koall/Getty Images

    The Survival of Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe

    Sławomir Sierakowski

    Following parliamentary elections in Poland and local elections in Hungary, populist autocrats in both countries remain in power, where they will continue to undermine democratic institutions. Even so, relative victories for opposition forces in both countries show that the region's "illiberal democrats" are not unbeatable.

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  2. tharoor133_Drew AngererGetty Images_modihandsout Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    India’s Modi Slowdown

    Shashi Tharoor

    After Prime Minister Narendra Modi was overwhelmingly re-elected in May with an even larger majority for his party, many economists expected him to take bold steps to remove the many bottlenecks that have discouraged investors. But no one should believe the Modi government has the ability or the will to fix what it broke.

    3
  3. drew47_Drew AngererGetty Images_trumpgiulianasmiling Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    Will Trump Be Removed from Office?

    Elizabeth Drew

    Assuming the US House of Representatives votes to impeach President Donald Trump, the fact remains that there are far fewer votes in the Senate than will be needed to convict him and remove him from office. But the willingness of Congress – including the Senate – to continue tolerating his dangerous conduct is now truly in question.

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