Los peligros de una euroización prematura

Trece años después de la caída del Muro de Berlín, los países poscomunistas de Europa central y del Este están a punto de adherirse a la UE, con lo que por fin habría una Europa unida. El precio de las reformas ha sido alto, pero los intensos esfuerzos que han hecho esos Estados a fin de prepararse para la membresía en la UE podrían desperdiciarse si deciden adoptar el euro demasiado pronto.

Casi todo el mundo cree, incluso los observadores más euroescépticos, que el adherirse a la eurozona afianzará una transformación exitosa de esos países en economías de mercado modernas. Por supuesto que las ventajas políticas y económicas netas de la moneda común a largo plazo son claras, pero los tiempos importan. Quienes están a favor de una euroización rápida sostienen que promoverá y dará un carácter permanente a las reformas fiscales, financieras y laborales, al tiempo que aumentará el comercio y los ingresos.

Sin embargo, hay pocas evidencias que indiquen que la euroización puede darse antes de que se hayan hecho suficientes reformas institucionales. Además, se basan en las experiencias de países con mercados emergentes cuya relevancia para las economías poscomunistas es cuestionable. En contraste, la euroización hasta ahora ha exigido un grado aceptable de consolidación fiscal previa, una política monetaria creíble e independiente, instituciones financieras razonablemente competitivas y mercados laborales flexibles.

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