Les dangers d'une euroisation prématurée

Trente ans après la chute du Mur de Berlin, les pays postcommunistes d'Europe Centrale et d'Europe de l'Est sont prêts à rejoindre l'Union européenne afin d'unir enfin l'Europe. Le prix de la réforme a été élevé, mais le dur labeur que ces états ont abattu pour se préparer à entrer dans l'Union européenne peut être gâché s'ils choisissent d'adopter l'euro trop tôt.

La croyance dans le fait que l'entrée dans la zone euro confirmera la réussite de la transformation de ces pays en économies de marché modernes est largement répandue, même chez les plus euro-sceptiques des observateurs. Bien entendu, les avantages politiques et économiques nets sur le long terme de la devise commune sont clairs. Mais le temps presse. Les partisans d'une euroisation rapide soutiennent qu'elle favorisera et bloquera les réformes fiscales, financières et celles du marché du travail tout en développant le commerce et en augmentant les revenus.

Mais les preuves étayant la croyance que l'euroisation puisse précéder des réformes institutionnelles suffisantes sont peu nombreuses. Elles sont en outre basées sur les expériences de divers pays aux marchés émergents dont la pertinence pour les économies postcommunistes est contestable. Par opposition, l'euroisation a jusqu'à présent nécessité un degré équitable de consolidation fiscale préalable, une politique monétaire crédible et indépendante, des institutions financières raisonnablement compétitives et des marchés du travail souples.

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