¿Llegará a cuadrar la economía mundial?

CAMBRIDGE – Este año ha comenzado con una impresión de optimismo prudente para la economía mundial. Europa se ha salvado después de haber estado al borde del abismo. Los Estados Unidos no han caído por el precipicio fiscal. El Japón está actuando para cambiar su estrategia económica y China parece estar volviendo a encarrilarse.

Además, los índices de los mercados financieros de los EE.UU. están cercanos a los niveles anteriores a la crisis y el de la inestabilidad prevista es el más bajo     de los últimos años. Las más importantes instituciones financieras están mejor capitalizadas de lo que lo habían estado en mucho tiempo. Se han reparado los balances y muchos agentes económicos nadan en efectivo. Si bien 2013 no será un año extraordinario, puede que se lo considere el primer año del período posterior a la crisis.

Desde luego, las circunstancias políticas siguen siendo difíciles casi por doquier. Los EE.UU. afrontarán tres nuevos obstáculos fiscales –falta de autoridad legal para pagar la deuda, falta de presupuesto de funcionamiento para el Gobierno federal y la temida perspectiva de un embargo– antes del final de marzo. En Italia y Alemania van a celebrarse elecciones decisivas. El nuevo Gobierno de China llega al poder entre niveles sin precedentes de preocupación del público por la corrupción y el enriquecimiento indebido de funcionarios públicos. Y no está claro que la fragmentada política del Japón permita una gobernación estable en los próximos años.

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