Quelle stratégie pour l'économie mondiale ?

CAMBRIDGE – Cette année a commencé sur une note d'optimisme prudent pour l'économie mondiale. L'Europe n'est plus au bord du gouffre, les USA ne se sont pas fracassés contre la falaise budgétaire, le Japon évolue vers un changement de stratégie économique et la Chine semble se redresser.

Aux USA, les indicateurs des marchés financiers sont proches de ce qu'ils étaient avant la crise et l'attente de volatilité est à un niveau très bas. La plupart des grandes institutions financières sont mieux capitalisées qu'elles ne l'ont jamais été depuis longtemps. Les bilans se sont redressés et beaucoup d'acteurs sont inondés de liquidités. 2013 ne sera sans doute pas une année phare, mais elle pourrait être la première année de la période de post-crise.

Il est vrai que presque partout l'environnement politique reste difficile. Les USA seront confrontés à trois défis budgétaires avant fin mars : l'absence d'une autorité légale pour payer la dette, l'absence d'un budget effectif pour l'Etat fédéral et la perspective inquiétante de coupes budgétaires automatiques. Des élections cruciales s'annoncent en Italie et en Allemagne. Le nouveau gouvernement chinois accède au pouvoir alors que l'opinion publique s'indigne comme jamais auparavant de la corruption et de l'enrichissement frauduleux des hauts responsables. Et au Japon il n'est pas sûr que les clivages politiques permettront une gouvernance stable dans les années à venir.

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