El peligro de los Estados débiles

NUEVA YORK: Los sucesos en Israel y Yugoslavia han opacado los disturbios en Nigeria e Indonesia. Sin embargo, los conflictos étnicos y religiosos en ambos “megaestados” están acabando con muchas vidas. No debemos perder de vista las consecuencias cataclísmicas que podrían darse si no se pone un freno a la violencia. El problema es que ambos países, baldados por años de tiranía y depredación, corren el riesgo de perder la capacidad para controlar la violencia.

La historia de la lucha por los derechos, desde la Magna Carta hasta la Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos, se ha centrado, principalmente, en poner límites a la autoridad del Estado. Por ello, puede resultar anómalo sostener que, para proteger los derechos, en varias partes del mundo hoy en día se necesita reforzar el poder del gobierno centralizado. No obstante, los valores liberales se ven amenazados en la misma medida por la incapacidad del Estado que por el poder despótico. En todo el mundo, incluyendo a dos de los países más grandes, las implicaciones de lo anterior se ciernen amenazadoras.

Si Nigeria se desintegrara, las consecuencias para sus 114 millones de habitantes, para el resto del atribulado continente africano, y para el sistema internacional serían catastróficas. Y aunque el gobierno del presidente Olusegun Obasanjo es el más democrático y el menos corrupto que Nigeria ha tenido desde su independencia (incluyendo un periodo a fines de los setenta, cuando el general Obasanjo era el gobernante militar del país hasta que dimitió voluntariamente para permitir la elección de un presidente civil), el país sigue siendo peligrosamente débil.

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