Le dilemme monétaire

Deux analyses dominent la question des taux de changes en vigueur aujourd'hui: le dollar est surévalué et le yen doit passer par une profonde dépréciation. Ces deux analyses impliquent une tendance à la hausse explosive pour l'euro. Mais l'Europe pourra-t-elle gérer un tel choc, et qu'adviendrait-il des Etats-Unis si cela se produisait?

Aujourd'hui que l'Amérique est en voie de rétablissement, et se relève d'un effondrement et non pas seulement d'une récession, le déficit comptable actuel ira en augmentant, et rapidement, les discussions à propos du dollar dont les taux sont trop élevés pour être viables seront remises au goût du jour. Et pourtant, le simple fait que les Etats-Unis se redressent, plus haut et plus rapidement et mieux qu'ailleurs, tandis que l'Europe reste la proie des à-coups de la croissance et que la politique kabukiesque de l'économie japonaise ne mène nulle part, soutiendra et même renforcera le dollar.

Tous ceux qui prédisaient la chute du "château de cartes" de l'économie américaine (et qui crurent que la chute d'Enron était enfin le présage céleste qui venait confirmer leur opinion) doivent se retrouver las aujourd'hui. Aucune menace d'effondrement du dollar. La stabilité financière, la productivité élevée, la flexibilité et le dynamisme américains font des Etats-Unis un lieu de prédilection pour les capitaux, et cet afflux de capitaux finance la majeure partie du déficit américain actuel. Et il continuera d'en être ainsi jusqu'à ce que, au bout du chemin, le Japon et l'Europe puissent soutenir la comparaison avec le climat d'investissements des Etats-Unis. Pour autant, n'espérez pas trop, n'attendez pas l'avènement de l'euro à 1,20 dollar présenté comme le taux d'équilibrage.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/fv8iE7X/fr;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.