Le dilemme monétaire

Deux analyses dominent la question des taux de changes en vigueur aujourd'hui: le dollar est surévalué et le yen doit passer par une profonde dépréciation. Ces deux analyses impliquent une tendance à la hausse explosive pour l'euro. Mais l'Europe pourra-t-elle gérer un tel choc, et qu'adviendrait-il des Etats-Unis si cela se produisait?

Aujourd'hui que l'Amérique est en voie de rétablissement, et se relève d'un effondrement et non pas seulement d'une récession, le déficit comptable actuel ira en augmentant, et rapidement, les discussions à propos du dollar dont les taux sont trop élevés pour être viables seront remises au goût du jour. Et pourtant, le simple fait que les Etats-Unis se redressent, plus haut et plus rapidement et mieux qu'ailleurs, tandis que l'Europe reste la proie des à-coups de la croissance et que la politique kabukiesque de l'économie japonaise ne mène nulle part, soutiendra et même renforcera le dollar.

Tous ceux qui prédisaient la chute du "château de cartes" de l'économie américaine (et qui crurent que la chute d'Enron était enfin le présage céleste qui venait confirmer leur opinion) doivent se retrouver las aujourd'hui. Aucune menace d'effondrement du dollar. La stabilité financière, la productivité élevée, la flexibilité et le dynamisme américains font des Etats-Unis un lieu de prédilection pour les capitaux, et cet afflux de capitaux finance la majeure partie du déficit américain actuel. Et il continuera d'en être ainsi jusqu'à ce que, au bout du chemin, le Japon et l'Europe puissent soutenir la comparaison avec le climat d'investissements des Etats-Unis. Pour autant, n'espérez pas trop, n'attendez pas l'avènement de l'euro à 1,20 dollar présenté comme le taux d'équilibrage.

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