Měnové rozpaky

Na současnou problematiku směnných kurzů existují dva názory: dolar je nadhodnocený a jen je třeba notně devalvovat. Jejich důsledkem by pak bylo strmé posilování eura. Dokázala by se ale Evropa s takovým sokem vyrovnat? A co se stane se Spojenými státy, pokud k tomu opravdu dojde?

Teď, když se Amerika zase vzpamatovává - z oslabení, nikoli recese -, se deficit obchodní bilance prohloubí jestě více a diskuse o neudržitelnosti vysoké hodnoty dolaru se opět dostanou na první stránky novin. Jenže sám fakt, že vzestup USA je větsí, rychlejsí a lepsí než kdekoli jinde - Evropu nepřestávají trápit její rozsiřovací křeče a japonské ekonomické kabuki nevede nikam -, dolar podpoří a dokonce už posiluje.

Vsichni ti, kdo předvídali zhroucení amerického ekonomického ,,domečku z karet``, vsichni ti, kdo tvrdili, že kolapsem Enronu jim konečně nebesa dala zapravdu, musí být najednou v koncích. Žádný kolaps dolaru na obzoru. Finanční stabilita, silná produktivita, pružnost a dynamika - to jsou vlastnosti, díky nimž se Spojené státy staly pro kapitál zemí zaslíbenou; a právě tento příliv kapitálu onen schodek obchodní bilance zalátá. A tak tomu bude do té doby, než se investiční podmínky Evropy či Japonska dostanou alespoň na srovnatelnou úroveň se Spojenými státy. Ne, nehrozte se, nebude to hned tak brzy. Nečekejte, že se v dohledné době bude euro prodávat za dolar dvacet, tedy v takzvaném ,,rovnovážném`` kurzu, který se Evropě podařilo prosadit.

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