夏天的危机

普林斯顿— 眼下,欧洲危机进入了关键时刻,复兴和复苏还是衰退和死亡,马上就要见分晓了。几周之前,评论家和分析师们还在大谈拯救欧洲的时间只剩下了几个月,而如今,连轴转出席峰会的政治领导人已开始用“天”作为计时单位。

夏天的危机乃是欧洲历史的常见之事,金融史亦然。事实上,20世纪便是由三起夏天的危机造就的,每一次危机都因为主要决策者休假不在场而导致严重代价。

两年后,欧洲就将迎来斐迪南大公遇刺(1914年6月28日)及其后引发第一次世界大战的“七月危机”100周年纪念。1931年7月13日,德国银行系统崩溃,从而导致此前美国所发生的经济衰退演变成一场全世界大萧条。1971年8月15日,美国总统尼克松结束了美元和黄金固定比价的历史,引发全球货币十年动荡。

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