中国的利率挑战

纽约——中国能否从中等收入国家向现代高收入国家成功转型将在很大程度上取决于政府今后十年的举措。以利率市场化为开端的金融改革将是主要举措之一。但利率市场化有赢有输,有回报也有风险,因此决策者必须谨慎决策。

2012年,中国人民银行允许商业银行存款利率在基准利率基础上上浮10%、贷款利率下浮20%。如果中国人民银行把一年期存款利率定为3%,商业银行可以向储户提供最高3.3%的利率。很多分析人士把这项政策视为中国将很快进一步放松利率管制的标志,这项政策给商业银行领域带来了一定程度的竞争。

但任何深化利率市场的举措都必须考虑到潜在的成本和收益。中国决策者理应从认真研究当前金融抑制(将利率保持在低于市场平衡水平的做法)所产生的效果开始。

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