El pánico de Copenhague

COPENHAGUE – Una sensación de pánico está cundiendo entre muchos activistas a favor de recortes drásticos en las emisiones globales de carbono. Se está tornando obvio que la reunión tan promocionada programada para diciembre en Copenhague no dará como resultado un tratado internacional vinculante que marque una diferencia significativa para el calentamiento global.

Después de una retórica excelsa y de grandes promesas, los políticos están empezando a jugar el juego de la culpa. Los países en desarrollo culpan a los países ricos por la falta de progreso. Muchos culpan a Estados Unidos, que no habrá llegado a implementar una legislación de tope y comercialización antes de Copenhague. El secretario general de las Naciones Unidas dice que ampquot;tal vez al presidente Obama le resulte difícil llegar con una autoridad fuerteampquot; a alcanzar un acuerdo en Copenhague. Otros culpan a los países en desarrollo -particularmente Brasil, China e India- por una reticencia a firmar recortes de carbono vinculantes. Hacia donde uno mire, alguien está siendo culpado por el aparente fracaso inminente de Copenhague.

Sin embargo, durante un tiempo considerable ha resultado evidente que existe un problema más esencial: las promesas inmediatas de recortes de carbono no funcionan. Hace diecisiete años, los países industrializados prometieron con gran fanfarria en Río de Janeiro recortar las emisiones a los niveles de 1990 para 2000. Las emisiones superaron el objetivo en un 12%. En Kyoto, los líderes se comprometieron a un recorte del 5,2% por debajo de los niveles de 1990 para 2010. La imposibilidad de cumplir con ese objetivo probablemente sea aún más espectacular, ya que las emisiones podrían excederse en alrededor del 25%.

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