Panique à Copenhague

COPENHAGUE – Un vent de panique souffle sur les nombreuses personnalités qui font campagne pour des réductions radicales des émissions mondiales de carbone. Il est maintenant évident que la réunion de Copenhague dont on a tant vanté les mérites n'aboutira pas en décembre prochain à un traité international contraignant pouvant faire une nette différence en matière de réchauffement planétaire.

Après de nobles discours et de grandes promesses, les politiciens commencent à se renvoyer la balle. Les pays en développement reprochent aux pays riches l'absence de progrès. Beaucoup critiquent les États-Unis de ne pas avoir mis en place de législation sur l’échange de crédits d’émissions avant Copenhague. D’après le Secrétaire général des Nations unies, le président Obama aura probablement du mal à faire poids pour parvenir à un accord à Copenhague. D'autres blâment les pays en développement – en particulier le Brésil, la Chine et l'Inde – pour leurs réticences à signer des accords contraignants de réduction du carbone. Au bout du compte, tout le monde se voit reprocher l'échec qui se profile à Copenhague.

Pourtant, il est clair depuis très longtemps que le problème est plus profond : les promesses immédiates de réduction du carbone sont inutiles. Il y a 17 ans, les nations industrialisées promettaient en grande fanfare à Rio de Janeiro une diminution, avant 2000, aux niveaux de 1990 ; celle-ci a dépassé l'objectif de 12 %. À Kyoto, les dirigeants se sont engagés pour une diminution, avant 2010, de 5,2 % inférieure aux niveaux de 1990. L’incapacité à réaliser cet objectif sera probablement encore plus spectaculaire, les émissions allant jusqu’à environ 25 %.

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