Уроки Сирии

ПРИНСТОН – В то время как Соединенные Штаты и Россия пытаются созвать конференцию, которая собрала бы за одним столом различные стороны, участвующие в сирийском конфликте, потенциальные западные участники, по крайней мере, должны задуматься о серьезных последствиях сирийского конфликта для диктатур и демократий по всему миру. Вот некоторые преподнесенные уроки:

Плохие парни помогают своим друзьям. Русские и иранцы готовы сделать все возможное, чтобы удержать президента Башара аль-Асада у власти. Хезболла, которую поддерживает Иран, уже в открытую выступает в поддержку режима Асада. Россия и Иран продолжают поставлять сирийскому правительству тяжелое вооружение и другую военную помощь, включая поставку Россией современных противокорабельных ракет с усовершенствованной радиолокационной системой. Все это позволит Асаду, находясь в полной безопасности, отбивать все попытки проникнуть на территорию мини-государства Алавитов, включая и арендуемую Россией военно-морскую базу в Тартусе.

Дипломатия без реальной угрозы применения силы – это пустые разговоры. «Говори тихо, но держи в руках большую палку», ‑ советовал Теодор Рузвельт. Президент Барак Обама справедливо хочет играть ведущую роль в мировых делах посредством, скорее, гражданских, а не военных сил; он понимает, что военные решения для внешнеполитических проблем чрезвычайно дороги и зачастую контрпродуктивны с точки зрения обеспечения безопасности и процветания США в долгосрочной перспективе.

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