As lições da Síria

PRINCETON – Enquanto os Estados Unidos e a Rússia tentam mediar uma conferência que pode levar os vários lados do conflito sírio à mesa de negociações, os potenciais participantes ocidentais, no mínimo, deveriam estar a pensar nas implicações mais amplas do conflito sírio para os ditadores e as democracias de todo o mundo. Aqui estão as lições dadas até agora:

Os “maus da fita” ajudam os seus amigos. Os russos e os iranianos estão dispostos a fazerem o que for preciso para manterem o Presidente Bashar al-Assad no poder. O Hezbollah, financiado pelo Irão, avançou agora abertamente para o campo de batalha em apoio ao regime de Assad. A Rússia e o Irão mantiveram o governo sírio abastecido com armas pesadas e outras formas de assistência militar, incluindo um carregamento russo de sofisticados mísseis anti-navio com sistemas de radar avançados. Isto irá ajudar Assad a esconder-se e a defender-se de todos os participantes, num mini-estado alauita que incluirá a instalação portuária arrendada pelos russos em Tartus.

A diplomacia, sem uma ameaça credível de força, é conversa fiada. “Fale baixo e mostre ter atitude”, aconselhou Theodore Roosevelt. O presidente Barack Obama quer conduzir correctamente os assuntos globais, mais através dos civis do que do poder militar; ele entende que as soluções militares para os problemas de política externa são extremamente caras e muitas vezes contraproducentes em termos de promoverem a segurança e a prosperidade dos EUA a longo prazo.

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