Syrische Lehren

PRINCETON – Nun, da die Vereinigten Staaten und Russland versuchen, eine Konferenz zu vermitteln, um die verschiedenen Seiten im syrischen Konflikt an einen Verhandlungstisch zu bringen, sollten zumindest die potenziellen Teilnehmer aus dem Westen über die umfassenderen Auswirkungen des Syrien-Konflikts auf Diktatoren und Demokratien weltweit nachdenken. Die bislang daraus zu ziehenden Lehren stellen sich folgendermaßen dar:

Bösewichte helfen ihren Freunden. Russen und Iraner sind bereit, alles zu tun, um Präsident  Bashar al-Assad an der Macht zu halten. Die vom Iran belieferte Hisbollah zieht nun offen auf Seiten des Assad-Regimes in den Krieg. Russland und der Iran versorgen die syrische Regierung mit schweren Waffen und anderer militärischer Unterstützung, einschließlich einer Lieferung hochentwickelter Anti-Schiff-Raketen mit modernen Radarsystemen. Diese werden Assad helfen, in Deckung zu gehen und alle Eindringlinge in einen alawitischen Mini-Staat abzuwehren, zu dem auch der russische Hafenstützpunkt in Tartus zählen wird.

Diplomatie ohne glaubwürdige Gewaltandrohung ist leeres Gerede. „Sprich sanft und trage einen großen Knüppel bei dir”, lautete  Theodore Roosevelts Rat. Präsident Barack Obama möchte auf internationaler Ebene zu Recht mehr durch zivile als durch militärische Macht führen. Er weiß, dass militärische Lösungen für außenpolitische Probleme extrem teuer und langfristig im Hinblick auf Sicherheit und Wohlstand der USA oftmals kontraproduktiv sind.

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