La inminente revolución energética global

PARIS – El futuro de la humanidad, para no hablar de su prosperidad, dependerá de cómo el mundo aborde dos desafíos energéticos centrales: asegurar suministros confiables de energía costeable y virar a una energía eficiente de bajo contenido de carbono.

El Escenario de Referencia -en el que no se introducen políticas nuevas- dentro del Panorama de la Energía Mundial 2008 de la Agencia Internacional de Energía ve un crecimiento anual de la demanda de energía primaria global del 1,6% promedio hasta 2030, de 11.730 millones de toneladas equivalentes de petróleo (Mtep) a apenas poco más de 17.010 Mtep -un incremento del 45% en apenas más de 20 años.

China e India representan poco más de la mitad de este incremento, mientras que los países de Oriente Medio contribuyen otro 11% a la demanda. Los países que no son miembros de la OCDE representan el 87% del incremento, de manera que su porcentaje de la demanda de energía primaria mundial aumentará de 51% a 62%.

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