ثورة الطاقة العالمية القادمة

باريس ـ إن مستقبل الجنس البشري، ناهيك عن رخائه وازدهاره، يتوقف على الكيفية التي سوف يتعامل بها العالم مع تحديين مركزيين مرتبطين بالطاقة: تأمين إمدادات ثابتة من الطاقة بأسعار معقولة والتحول إلى مصادر الطاقة الفعّالة المنخفضة الكربون.

والسيناريو المرجعي ـ الذي لا يشتمل على سياسات جديدة ـ الوارد في تقرير توقعات الطاقة العالمية الصادر عن وكالة الطاقة الدولية لعام 2008 يتوقع زيادة سنوية في الطلب العالمي الأولي على الطاقة تقدر بحوالي 1,6% في المتوسط حتى عام 2030، ليرتفع من 11730 مليون طن من مكافئ النفط إلى ما يزيد قليلاً على 17010 مليون طن من مكافئ النفط ـ وهي زيادة قدرها 45% في مدة تزيد قليلاً عن عشرين عاماً.

سوف تمثل الصين والهند ما يزيد قليلاً عن نصف هذه الزيادة، وسوف تساهم بلدان الشرق الأوسط بزيادة قدرها 11% على الطلب. والبلدان غير الأعضاء في منظمة التعاون الاقتصادي والتنمية عموماً سوف تكون مسؤولة عن 87% من الزيادة على الطلب، وهذا يعني أن حصة هذه البلدان في الطلب على الطاقة الأولية العالمية سوف ترتفع من 51% إلى 62%.

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