La próxima sobreoferta de crédito global

HONG KONG - Cuando los líderes en la cumbre del G-20 se reúnan esta semana en Cannes, Francia, el próximo campo minado económico que enfrentarán ya estará saliendo a la luz. Es probable que adopte la forma de una sobreoferta global y opaca del crédito, impulsada por la combinación de una banca mundial "demasiado grande para quebrar" con un enorme sector bancario en las sombras que, en gran , no ha sido advertido ni reglamentado.

Es cierto que no es lo que muchos ven. El Presidente de la Reserva Federal, Ben Bernanke, y otros personeros han atribuido la crisis financiera de 2008 a un exceso de ahorro global, que generó grandes flujos de dinero desde economías de mercados emergentes con altos niveles de ahorro -especialmente en Asia- que poseen superávits crónicos de la balanza de pagos. De acuerdo con esta escuela de pensamiento, el exceso de ahorro llevó las tasas de interés de largo plazo a niveles bajísimos, produciendo burbujas de activos en los Estados Unidos y otros países.

Sin embargo, Claudio Borio y Disayat Piti, economistas del Banco de Pagos Internacionales, han argumentado de forma convincente que la teoría del exceso de ahorro no explica la insostenible creación de crédito en el período previo a la crisis de 2008. Han demostrado que los flujos de capital importantes no provenían de los mercados emergentes, sino de Europa, donde no había un superávit neto de la balanza de pagos.

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