Přichází globální přebytek úvěrů

HONGKONG – Až se nejvyšší světoví představitelé sejdou koncem tohoto týdne na summitu skupiny G-20 ve francouzském Cannes, bude se již na obzoru rýsovat další ekonomické minové pole, jemuž budou muset čelit. Pravděpodobně bude mít podobu neprůhledného globálního přebytku úvěrů, který ještě prohloubí křehká směsice globálního působení bank pokládaných za příliš velké, než aby mohly padnout, a obrovského a do značné míry nehlídaného a neregulovaného stínového bankovnictví.

Mnozí lidé samozřejmě tuto skutečnost nevidí. Šéf Rady guvernérů Federálního rezervního systému Ben Bernanke a další přičetli finanční krizi z roku 2008 globálnímu přebytku úspor, který podnítil peněžní toky ze zemí s rozvíjejícími se trhy a vysokou mírou úspor – zejména v Asii –, jež vykazují chronické přebytky platební bilance. Nadměrné úspory podle této myšlenkové školy stlačily dlouhodobé úrokové sazby na samé dno, což vedlo k nafouknutí bublin aktiv ve Spojených státech i jinde.

Claudio Borio a Piti Disayat, ekonomové z Banky pro mezinárodní platby, však přesvědčivě dokázali, že teorie přebytku úspor nevysvětluje neudržitelný růst objemu úvěrů před krizí v roce 2008. Ukázali, že hlavní kapitálové toky nepřicházely z rozvíjejících se trhů, nýbrž z Evropy, kde žádný čistý přebytek platební bilance neexistoval.

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