即将到来的全球信用泛滥

香港——世界领导人将于本周末的法国戛纳G20峰会上聚首,而他们将面临的下一个经济雷区已经浮现在了眼前。这雷区的形式可能是不透明的全球信用泛滥,其背后的推手是由“大而不能倒”的全球银行体系和规模巨大但几乎不为人知、不受监管的影子银行部门所组成的脆弱混合体。

实事求是地说,很多人并没有看到这一点。美联储主席伯南克和其他人指责2008年金融危机的罪魁是全球储蓄泛滥,储蓄泛滥导致资金从长期以来存在国际收支盈余的高储蓄新兴市场经济体,特别是亚洲,源源不断地流出。根据这一派的看法,过度储蓄导致了长期利率跌至最低点,吹起了美国和其他地方的资产泡沫。

但国际清算银行的经济学家克劳迪奥·博利奥(Claudio Borio)和皮蒂·迪沙亚特(Piti Disayat)有力地指出,储蓄泛滥理论并不能解释导致2008年危机的不可持续的信用创造。他们证明,流入资本主要并非来自新兴市场,而是来自不存在国际收支净盈余的欧洲。

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