利率的将来

正如一燕不是夏,美国一个月正常工作和物价增长也不能表示美联储不用再为经济问题和通货紧缩而担心,而当央行准备抑止通货膨胀的增长势头时,世界的利率总有一天会上升的。

无论这个时刻何时到来--今年秋天,2005年,2006年,或者2007年--美国以及世界经济都将直面财政弱点,而这正反映了过去三年来为阻止生产下降和调解失业问题而采取的货币激励制度的成功。短期的利率低得惊人:在欧元区只有2%。在美国是1%,而日本是0。扩张性的货币政策已经取得了成功,但仅仅是把利率推向了历史的低点--外加说服投资者这样的借贷成本还会保持相当长的时间。

货币激励政策的一个主要结果就是使资产价格上扬:只要利率特别低,并且有望保持这样的低水平,任何能带来收益、红利和租金的东西都显得更加诱人,而且在货币意义上更有价值。这就解释了美国的房地产,纽约、伦敦和法兰克福的股票,世界各地的长期债券与人们认可的传统基本价值之间形成的巨大落差。

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