عصر "الأتمتة" المالية القادم

برينستون ـ إن المناقشات العامة، وخاصة أثناء الأزمات الاقتصادية، تركز عادة على الإحصائيات الخاصة بالنمو، والتي تعمل وكأنها ميزان حرارة لقياس الحمّى. ولكن القراءات لا يمكن التعويل عليها، وهي تتغير باستمرار، الأمر الذي يدفع القائمين على الإحصاء إلى التفكير في طرق مختلفة لقياس المنتجات المختلفة لأي اقتصاد. ولقد ألقت البيانات المنقحة حديثاً بظلال من الشك على النطاق الاقتصادي بصورة خاصة والدور الذي تلعبه الخدمات المالية.

في نهاية شهر يوليو/تموز أصدر مكتب التحليل الاقتصادي في الولايات المتحدة مراجعات لبيانات الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الأميركي ترجع إلى عام 1929. وكانت النتيجة الرئيسية تتلخص في إثبات أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي أشد تقلباً مما كان مفترضاً من قبل.

فقد نما الاقتصاد بمعدلات أسرع في الأوقات الطيبة، وانخفض بصورة أشد حِدة في أوقات الانحدار والتراجع. وأثناء الفترة من عام 1997 إلى عام 2008 كان معدل النمو السنوي 2,8% وليس 2,7%. وفي عام 2008 هبط الرقم إلى 0,4% وليس 1,1% كما كان مفترضاً من قبل. كما كان الانهيار في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الربع الأول من عام 2009 أكبر حجماً مما كان متصوراً من قبل.

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