La couleur de M. Poutine


L’opinion publique utilise toujours des stéréotypes. Et c’est bien pire encore quand les stéréotypes prennent le pas sur la conscience des élites d’une société. C’est pourtant bien ce qui se passe en Russie aujourd’hui.

Les cercles libéraux occidentaux et intérieurs caractérisent communément le gouvernement de Vladimir Poutine comme un régime toujours plus autoritaire et inefficace. Dans la mesure où l’on considère que les régimes médiocres, surtout quand ils sont personnels, ne sont pas stables, la conclusion logique qui s’impose est celle d’une « révolution colorée », comme on en observa en Géorgie, en Ukraine et au Kirghizistan, scénario qui se répétera fort probablement en Russie.

Dans la Russie d’aujourd’hui, tout est bien sûr possible. Mais je crois qu’il s’agit plus d’un vœu pieu que d’une logique pure et dure chez ceux qui en appellent à la « révolution colorée ».

Considérons, par exemple, le fait que personne n’ait jamais développé une façon précise de mesurer si un gouvernement est efficace et dans quelle mesure il l’est. Si le critère d’efficacité est représenté par la capacité à atteindre tous les objectifs d’une société, nous ne rencontrerons probablement jamais un tel phénomène. Les États-Unis, dotés d’un gouvernement qu’on ne peut pas vraiment qualifier de faible, ont bâclé la guerre d’Irak et les secours après le cyclone Katrina. En comparaison de ces échecs, les réussites de Vladimir Poutine en Tchétchénie ressemblent à des succès notables.

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