La receta secreta de la economía china

BEIJING – El crecimiento del PBI de China este año puede alcanzar el 10%. Mientras que algunos países todavía están lidiando con la crisis económica o sus consecuencias, el desafío de China consiste –una vez más- en saber cómo manejar la prosperidad.

Gracias a medidas políticas decisivas para prevenir una burbuja inmobiliaria, el mercado de bienes raíces se ha estabilizado, y se esperan nuevas correcciones en breve. Estas son buenas noticias para la economía de China, pero tal vez desalentadoras para quienes supusieron que el gobierno iba a permitir que la burbuja creciera cada vez más y, llegado el caso, precipitara una crisis.

Que la corrección inmobiliaria afecte o no el crecimiento global va a depender de qué se entiende por “afectar”. Los precios más bajos de los activos pueden retardar el crecimiento total de las inversiones y el PBI, pero si la desaceleración oscila (supuestamente) entre el 11% y el 9%, China habrá evitado el recalentamiento económico y, al mismo tiempo, experimentará un crecimiento elevado sostenible. De hecho, para China, la actual tasa de crecimiento anualizada del 37% en inversión inmobiliaria es muy negativa. En términos ideales, se desaceleraría y llegaría, digamos, ¡al 27% este año”!

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