Секретный рецепт китайской экономики

ПЕКИН. В этом году рост ВВП Китая может приблизиться к 10%. В то время как некоторые страны занимаются экономическим кризисом или его последствиями, перед Китаем (вновь) встала прежняя задача – как справиться с экономическим бумом.

Благодаря решительным политическим шагам по предотвращению раздувания экономического «мыльного пузыря» жилищного строительства рынок недвижимости стабилизировался, и вскоре ожидаются дальнейшие корректировки. Это хорошая новость для экономики Китая, но плохая, возможно, для тех, кто полагал, что правительство позволит данному «мыльному пузырю» расти и расти, пока это не приведёт к краху.

Повлияет ли корректировка в жилищном строительстве на общий экономический рост, зависит от того, как определять слово «влиять». Более низкие цены на активы могут замедлить общий рост инвестиций и ВВП, но если замедление окажется (предположительно) на уровне от 11% до 9%, то Китай сможет избежать экономического перегрева, в то же время сохранив устойчиво высокий экономический рост. Вообще, для Китая текущий общегодовой темп роста инвестиций в жилищное строительство, составивший 37%, является очень негативным. В идеале в этом году он должен замедлиться, скажем, до 27%!

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