La recette secrète de l’économie chinoise

PEKIN – La croissance du PIB de la Chine pourrait approcher les 10% cette année. Alors que certains pays sont encore en prise avec la crise, ou avec ses conséquences, le défi de la Chine est – une fois encore – de gérer le boom économique.

Grâce à des mesures déterminantes visant à anticiper une bulle de l’immobilier, le marché de l’immobilier est stabilisé et de nouvelles corrections sont attendues prochainement. C’est une bonne nouvelle pour l’économie chinoise, mais peut-être un peu décevant pour ceux qui s’attendaient à ce que le gouvernement laisse enfler la bulle ce qui aurait éventuellement provoqué un krash.

Que la correction dans l’immobilier frappe, ou pas, la croissance dans son ensemble dépend de ce que l’on entend par frapper. La baisse des prix des actifs pourrait ralentir la croissance de l’ensemble des investissements et du PIB mais si cette baisse doit être de 11% à 9%, la Chine évitera une surchauffe économique tout en profitant d’une croissance forte durable. Pour la Chine, l’actuel taux de croissance annualisé de 37% dans l’investissement immobilier est très négatif. Idéalement, il devrait ralentir à, disons, 27% cette année !

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