Tajný recept čínské ekonomiky

PEKING – Růst HDP Číny se letos přiblíží možná až k 10 %. Zatímco některé státy se stále ještě potýkají s hospodářskou krizí či jejími důsledky, pro Čínu je opět výzvou jak si poradit s boomem.

Díky rázným politickým opatřením s cílem předejít bublině obytných nemovitostí se realitní trh stabilizoval a v nejbližší době se očekávají další korekce. To je pro čínskou ekonomiku dobrá zpráva, byť snad zarmoutí ty, kdo se domnívali, že vláda nechá bublinu narůstat víc a víc, až vyvolá krach.

Zda korekce v oblasti obytných nemovitostí zasáhne celkový růst, závisí na tom, jak člověk definuje „zasažení“. Nižší ceny aktiv mohou snížit celkový růst investic a HDP, ale pokud (údajně) dojde ke zpomalení z 11 na 9 %, Čína se vyhne ekonomickému přehřátí, a přesto se bude těšit vysokému udržitelnému růstu. Vždyť aktuální anualizované tempo růstu investic do bytových nemovitostí, dosahující 37 %, je pro Čínu velmi negativní. Ideálně by pro letošek mělo zpomalit řekněme na 27 %!

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