El desafío de la inversión china

NUEVA YORK – China hoy está sentada sobre 2,4 billones de dólares de reservas en moneda extranjera, la acumulación más grande de cualquier país del mundo (Japón se ubica en segundo lugar con 1 billón de dólares). Pero este botín viene de la mano de un gran dolor de cabeza: ¿dónde deberían colocar los funcionarios del Partido Comunista chino todo este dinero?

Los banqueros internacionales estiman que aproximadamente las dos terceras partes de las reservas chinas se han invertido en activos en dólares. En otras palabras, China posee un gran volumen de la deuda de crecimiento vertiginoso de Estados Unidos. Las reservas chinas invertidas en estos instrumentos financieros conservadores están relativamente a salvo, pero su rendimiento es escaso. Sin embargo, han ayudado a respaldar la economía de China al permitirles a los estadounidenses acumular deuda de consumo por comprar más bienes chinos de lo que realmente necesitan.

Para ambas partes de esta relación económica codependiente y, en definitiva, disfuncional se avecina el momento de la verdad. En primer lugar, existen límites respecto de cuántos billones de dólares China puede y debe colocar en letras del Tesoro de Estados Unidos. Después de todo, si el dólar se depreciara, China no querría tener demasiados huevos depositados en la canasta estadounidense. Los inversores deberían diversificar su riesgo, al igual que China.

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