El débil gruñido de los osos de China

BEIJING – En los últimos meses, han surgido de repente muchas opiniones pesimistas sobre la economía china, debidas en gran parte a tres conjeturas. En primer lugar, el mercado de la vivienda de China está a punto de desplomarse. En segundo lugar, su situación fiscal empeorará rápidamente a consecuencia de la abultada deuda de las administraciones locales. En tercer lugar, el hundimiento de las redes clandestinas de crédito en ciudades muy dinámicas, como, por ejemplo, Wenzhou, provocará una amplia crisis financiera en todo el país.

En realidad, pese a sus problemas, la economía de China ha seguido en buenas condiciones: al menos hasta ahora. De hecho, aún no ha tocado fondo ni mucho menos.

Desde el comienzo del siglo XXI, unos precios de la vivienda por las nubes, exceptuado un breve período de tregua durante la crisis financiera mundial, han causado un grave descontento social en China. Después de años de adoptar medidas desganadas, el Gobierno ha actuado por fin contundentemente contra la especulación inmobiliaria. A consecuencia de ello, en octubre de este año los precios bajaron por primera vez, al tiempo que se reducía también el aumento de la inversión inmobiliaria.

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