Das schwache Brummen der chinesischen Bären

PEKING – In den letzten Monaten hat sich hinsichtlich der chinesischen Wirtschaft eine gewisse Bärenstimmung breitgemacht. Dies größtenteils aufgrund dreier Vermutungen. Erstens, weil sich der chinesische Immobilienmarkt angeblich am Rande des Zusammenbruchs befindet. Zweitens soll sich die Haushaltsposition Chinas aufgrund massiver Schulden lokaler Regierungen rasch verschlechtern und, drittens, soll der Zusammenbruch von Untergrund-Kreditnetzwerken in florierenden Städten wie Wenzhou zu einer handfesten Finanzkrise im ganzen Land führen.

In Wahrheit aber ist die chinesische Wirtschaft trotz dieser Probleme in guter Verfassung – zumindest bis jetzt. Tatsächlich befindet sie sich nicht einmal in der Nähe eines Tiefpunkts.

Mit Ausnahme einer kurzen Atempause während der globalen Finanzkrise sorgen sprunghaft steigende Immobilienpreise seit Anfang des 21. Jahrhunderts in China für ernsthafte soziale Unzufriedenheit. Nach Jahren halbherziger Bemühungen griff Chinas Regierung schließlich rigoros gegen die Immobilienspekulation durch. Aus diesem Grund fielen die Preise im Oktober zum ersten Mal in diesem Jahr. Auch das Wachstum bei Immobilieninvestitionen ging zurück.

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