看空中国不可取

北京——近几个月来,看空中国的情绪开始高涨,主要是因为三个猜测。首先,中国房地产市场已处于崩溃边缘。其次,中国财政状况将因大规模地方政府债务而急速恶化。第三,温州等地的地下信用网络的崩盘将导致席卷全国的大规模金融危机。

事实上,尽管存在诸多问题,但中国经济依然状况良好,至少从目前来看是如此。中国还远未出现触礁危险。

自21世纪以来,中国房价出现了暴涨,只是在全球金融危机期间略有回调,这已经造成了极大的社会不满。在多年只打雷不下雨之后,中国政府终于开始了整治房地产投机之路。结果,10月房价出现了今年首次下跌,房地产投资增长也出现了下降。

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