俄罗斯天然气大国的妄想

2006年新年伊始,俄罗斯在乌克兰政府拒绝支付四倍于天然气补贴价格后,切断了向该国的天然气出口。乌克兰众多的后苏联时代产业依赖于廉价的俄罗斯天然气,而欧洲则消费俄罗斯80%的天然气出口。当乌克兰开始从跨越本国领土的管道中分流天然气之时,这场危机马上波及到了欧洲。

具有讽刺意味的是,2006年俄罗斯成为八国集团轮值主席国,今年春天,八国集团将聚会莫斯科。俄罗斯总统普京为本次会议所选择的不大可能的主题是能源安全。

俄罗斯当前即使不再是一个全球性超级大国,其巨大的石油和天然气储备使它成为一个能源超级大国,而且普京看起来像要打这张牌。由于石油是一种可替代商品,因此它所提供的经济力量比天然气要稍逊一筹。而且,供应中断可以通过在全球市场采购来得到弥补。但是,由于天然气依赖于在输送中断时无法立即更换的昂贵的管道或者天然气液化设施,因此,其运输成本昂贵。

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