Die chaotische Geburt des Südsudan

MADRID – Das im Jahr 2005 zwischen dem überwiegend christlichen Südsudan und dem muslimischen Norden des Landes abgeschlossene Umfassende Friedensabkommen für Sudan (CPA) beendete einen der blutigsten Bürgerkriege der Neuzeit. Während dieses 22 Monate dauernden Krieges fanden über zwei Millionen Menschen den Tod. Nun steht dem Abkommen die entscheidende Bewährungsprobe bevor, nämlich die für 9. Januar anberaumte Volksabstimmung über die Unabhängigkeit des Südsudan.

Ob es in einer der strategisch sensibelsten Gegenden der Welt einen neuen Staat geben wird oder nicht, ist für die Nachbarn des Sudan und andere Länder von höchster Bedeutung. Im Mittelpunkt stehen zentrale Fragen: der Kampf um das Öl; Chinas starke Präsenz im Sudan; der Wunsch des Westens nach einem vorwiegend christlichen Staat, um die Kontiguität muslimischer Regime – und die damit verbundene Bedrohung durch den islamischen Radikalismus - in der Region aufzubrechen; die regionale Verteilung des Nilwassers; sowie die Möglichkeit, dass die Unabhängigkeit des Südens zu einer vollständigen Aufsplitterung des Sudans entlang ethnischer und religiöser Trennlinien führen könnte.  

Die Tatsache, dass der sudanesische Präsident Omar al-Bashir nicht gerade erpicht darauf ist, dem UN-Plan einer Aufstockung der friedenserhaltenden Truppen im Vorfeld des Referendums zuzustimmen, lässt Zweifel an seinen Absichten aufkommen. Er würde die Abstimmung sicher gerne hinauszögern und  - wenn sie dennoch abgehalten wird - ihre Rechtmäßigkeit anzweifeln.

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