La naissance chaotique du Sud Soudan

MADRID – L’Accord de Paix Global (APG) qui fut obtenu en 2005 au Soudan entre le sud principalement chrétien et le nord musulman a mis fin à l’une des guerres civiles les plus sanglantes des temps modernes. Cette guerre, qui a duré 22 ans, a fait plus de deux millions de morts. Cet APG est aujourd’hui confronté à l’une de ses plus cruciales épreuves : le référendum pour l’indépendance du Sud, programmé le 9 janvier.

Qu’un nouvel état émerge ou non dans l’une des régions les plus sensibles au monde est d’un intérêt primordial pour les voisins du Soudan, mais pas uniquement. Des questions vitales sont en jeu : la bataille pour le pétrole ; la forte présence de la Chine au Soudan ; le désir de l’Occident de voir un état à majorité chrétienne rompre la contiguïté des régimes musulmans – et la menace du radicalisme islamique – dans la région ; la distribution régionale des eaux du Nil ; et la possibilité que l’indépendance du Sud puisse entrainer un total démembrement du Soudan selon des principes ethniques et religieux.

Le fait que le président soudanais Omar al-Bashir ne soit pas vraiment enclin à accepter le plan de l’ONU prévoyant de renforcer les forces de maintien de la paix dans le pays à l’approche du référendum, soulève des inquiétudes quant à ses intentions. Il préfèrerait certainement voir le vote retardé – et contester sa légitimité dans le cas où il aurait lieu.

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