混乱中可能诞生的南苏丹

马德里——2005年基督徒占绝大多数的南苏丹和以穆斯林为主的北苏丹签署的《全面和平协议》(CPA)结束了当代一次最血腥的内战。 这场内战持续22年,导致两百万无辜民众丧生。 现在《全面和平协议》即将面临最关键的考验: 南苏丹定于1月9日举行独立公投。

是否会在全世界战略敏感度最高的地区诞生一个新国家是苏丹邻国和其他国家最关注的事件。 其中所涉及的关键问题有: 对石油的争夺,中国在苏丹地区的强势存在,西方希望看到以基督徒为主的国家打破区域内穆斯林政权的垄断——以及由此所导致的伊斯兰极端主义危险;尼罗河水资源在区域内的分配,以及南苏丹独立可能导致苏丹按宗教和种族界线彻底解体的风险。

苏丹总统奥马尔·巴希尔并不着急同意联合国在公投前增加维和部队令外界担心他的真正意图所在。 他当然希望延迟投票,即使举行投票也会质疑投票结果的合法性。

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