A Alteração do Mapa de Poder no Médio Oriente

BERLIM – A eclosão das revoltas árabes no final de 2010 e início de 2011 posicionou as relações de poder entre os países do Médio Oriente num estado de transição, no qual entram em cena tanto vencedores como vencidos. Mas, uma vez que os pontos fortes e fracos da maioria dos intervenientes são altamente contingentes, o equilíbrio de poder a nível regional continua extremamente fluido.

Na actual situação desse equilíbrio, o Egipto continua a ser um dos intervenientes mais influentes da região. O sucesso ou fracasso da sua transição política e económica afecta o modo como os outros países árabes se desenvolvem. Mas o Egipto encontra-se sobrecarregado de preocupações a nível interno, entre as quais uma economia que está a descer a pique e uma situação de segurança na qual se recorre aos militares para o desempenho de tarefas policiais.

A expansão do "poder brando" do Egipto dependerá da capacidade do seu primeiro governo democraticamente eleito, liderado pelo Presidente Mohamed Mursi, para tomar decisões difíceis e criar um consenso nacional. O sucesso na criação de uma governação eficaz estabeleceria um modelo que muitos dos países vizinhos do Egipto procurariam imitar, pelo menos em parte.

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