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中东实力地图的变迁

May 7, 2013 Volker Perthes

柏林—2010年末、2011年初爆发的阿拉伯革命让中东国家实力关系乱成了一锅粥，产生了赢家和输家。但是，由于大部分行动方的优势和劣势都是高度不确定的，地区实力平衡仍然极不稳定。

目前的实力平衡是，埃及仍然是地区最有影响力的行动方之一，其政治和经济转型的成与败影响着其他阿拉伯国家的发展。但埃及的影响因为国内问题二有所削弱，包括遭受重创的经济和用军队来处理政治任务的安全局势。

埃及软实力的扩张将取决于以总统穆尔西为首的、其第一届民主选出的政府的作出艰难决定和铸造国内一致的能力。成功地树立成功的治理将形成一个模式，埃及的诸多邻国都可以效仿（至少是部分效仿）。

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catalina none Jan 20, 2014

I guess if the author goes back and read it, he will definitely change his statements. However, as far as the kurds he seems to be very close. I am wondering how he thought Muslim brotherhood would ever bring any kind of democracy.. I guess it was a short article and quick observation
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Pramod Wadikar May 16, 2013

Except for the obvious statement that regional balance of power remains highly fluid,the article is totally disappointing.Firstly the author has missed out countries like UAE, Labanon,Jordan. His observation on Iraq is too optimistic. For a country devastated socially,politically ,economically with a loss of about 1.5 million population the author thinks Iraq can be winner.Observation on Iran probably is a wishful thinking rather than reality.
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