Dean Rohrer

Europas Drama Teil II – die „deutsche“ Krise

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Angela Merkel könnte gegenwärtig eigentlich hoch zufrieden sein, denn die Umfragen für ihre Partei und ihre Person sind nicht schlecht, bzw. sehr gut. Ernsthafte innerparteiliche Rivalen existieren nicht mehr. Die linke Seite ist in vier Parteien zersplittert, was nur in einem Drei-Parteien-Parlament (ohne Liberale, Linke und Piraten) eine rot-grüne Mehrheit als realistisch erscheinen lässt, zugleich aber den entscheidenden Nachteil hat, dass eine solche Konstellation aus heutiger Sicht nicht sehr realistisch ist. Und in der europäischen Krisenpolitik hat sie sich durchgesetzt, zumindest glaubt die Mehrheit der Deutschen diese ihre Botschaft. Eigentlich also alles bestens – oder doch nicht?

Zwei Faktoren können für die Wiederwahl Angela Merkels im Herbst 2013 ein echtes Problem werden. Innenpolitisch zerbröselt ihr liberaler Koalitionspartner ins parlamentarische Nichts. Auch wenn die FDP noch einmal überleben sollte, was alles andere als gesichert ist, so wird die jetzige Koalition kaum nochmals eine Mehrheit erhalten. Die Kanzlerin wird also mehr und mehr von den Sozialdemokraten abhängig werden, was der Kanzlerin allerdings egal sein kann, solange sie in ihrem Amt verbleibt. In Sigmar Gabriel, dem Vorsitzenden der SPD, hat sie allerdings zum ersten Mal einen Gegner, den zu unterschätzen für sie gefährlich werden könnte.

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