Dean Rohrer

La chancelière joue avec le feu !

BERLIN – La chancelière allemande Angela Merkel a de quoi être satisfaite : selon les sondages elle est très populaire et son parti recueille pas mal d'opinions favorables. Elle n'a plus de concurrent sérieux au sein de la CDU (centre-droit), tandis que l'opposition de gauche est fragmentée en quatre partis. Sa réponse à la crise européenne a emporté l'adhésion - c'est au moins l'impression qu'elle donne et ce que pensent la plupart des Allemands. Tout va donc pour le mieux semble-t-il ?

Il faut y regarder de plus près. Deux problèmes compliquent sa réélection à l'automne 2013. Son partenaire au sein de la coalition gouvernementale, le FDP (parti libéral-démocrate), se désintègre. Et même si elle survit à la prochaine élection (ce qui est loin d'être une certitude), la coalition ne conservera probablement pas sa majorité parlementaire, ce qui laissera la chancelière dépendante du SPD (parti social-démocrate). Elle pourrait ne pas y attacher trop d'importance dans la mesure où elle reste chancelière, si ce n'est que Sigmar Gabriel, le dirigeant du SPD auquel elle va être confrontée pour la première fois, est un adversaire qu'elle ne doit pas sous-estimer.

Mais la véritable menace qui pèse sur elle vient de l'extérieur, c'est la crise européenne. Si par malchance cette crise atteint un point critique au début de 2013, l'année des élections en Allemagne, tous les calculs antérieurs pourraient être remis en question, car malgré la déception des Allemands face à la crise européenne, l'électorat sanctionnerait sévèrement ceux qui auraient laissé l'UE s'effondrer.

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