Dean Rohrer

玩火的总理

柏林——近来德国总理默克尔应该很高兴;因为她所在的党派以及她个人的支持率都不低。在中右派基督民主联盟内,已经不再有和她为敌的对手,而且左派反对势力也分裂成了四个党派。至少以她的话来讲,她应对欧洲危机的方式广为流行为人们所接受,同样这一方式也是大多数德国人所信任的。因此,一切事务都进展地十分顺利,运行良好,不是吗?

但事情并未进展地如此之快。有两个事情可能会使默克尔2013年秋天连任竞选的局势变得复杂。从国内的角度而言,她的联合党---自由民主党正在面临着分裂。即使自由民族党能够维持统一到下一次大选(这种情况绝不可能出现),现在的联合党也不太可能保住议会的绝大多数席位。这使得默克尔越来越依赖社会民主党。然而,只要她能够连任总理,这对她来说就算不了什么大事。在这次总理竞选中,她面对的是社会民主党的领导,而这一次这个对手即使是她自担风险也不可轻视。

但是对默克尔来说真正的危险来自于外部---欧洲债务危机。如果她并不那么走运,这场危机在德国大选年的伊始就发展到了危机关头,那之前所精心制定的所有计划都可能会毫无实际意义。这是因为尽管德国人民对欧洲感到很失望,全体选民都会严厉地去惩罚使欧洲垮台的那些人。

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