Las próximas pruebas del crecimiento de China

BEIJING – Los últimos datos oficiales muestran de manera convincente que la economía china ha tocado fondo, y hoy la mayoría de las expectativas apuntan a que el crecimiento del PIB anual se acerque a un 7,8% en 2012. Un resultado que no debería sorprender.

Para limitar el creciente aumento de los precios de la vivienda y prevenir los efectos inflacionarios de las fuertemente expansionistas políticas monetaria y fiscal adoptadas durante la crisis financiera global, las autoridades monetarias de China comenzaron a restringir las condiciones financieras en enero de 2010.

El endurecimiento de las políticas monetarias, las medidas administrativas adoptadas por distintos gobiernos municipales para poner freno a la carrera en el mercado inmobiliario, y el menguante efecto del paquete de estímulo de ¥4 billones ($642,3 mil millones) han sido todos factores de una desaceleración gradual de la economía. Si bien la inflación debería haber bajado a principios de 2011, el aumento de los precios de los alimentos y los productos básicos frustró estas expectativas. El crecimiento anual del índice de precios al consumidor alcanzó un pico de 6,5% en julio de 2011.

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