La prochaine crise de croissance de la Chine

BEIJING – Les plus récentes données officielles indiquent clairement que l’économie chinoise a atteint le creux de la vague et la plupart des analystes s’entendent pour dire que la croissance annuelle de son PIB devrait atteindre 7,8 % en 2012. Un résultat qui ne devrait surprendre personne.

Pour juguler la montée des prix des biens immobiliers et prévenir les répercussions inflationnistes de politiques budgétaires et monétaires nettement expansionnistes mises en place au cours de la crise financière mondiale, les autorités monétaires de la Chine ont commencé à resserrer les conditions financières en janvier 2010.

Le resserrement monétaire, les mesures administratives introduites par plusieurs autorités municipales pour enrayer la flambée des prix sur le marché immobilier conjugués à l’estompement des effets du train de mesures gouvernementales de stimulation de 4 billions ¥ (642,3 milliards $) ont mis la table pour un ralentissement graduel de l’économie. Même si l’inflation devrait fléchir au début de 2011, la hausse des denrées alimentaires et des produits de base risque de décevoir bien des espoirs. Si bien qu’en juillet 2011 la croissance annuelle de l’indice des prix à la consommation culminait à 6,5 %.

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