中国的未来增长考验

发自北京——最近的官方数据令人信服地表明中国经济已经触底了。现在人们广泛预期其年度GDP增长在2012年将达到约7.8%。这个结果也应该是意料之中了。

为了在遏制房价的上升的同时预先控制全球金融危机时实施的大幅度扩张性财政和货币政策造成的通胀影响,中国的金融监管当局已经在2010年1月开始逐步对金融环境进行收紧。

随着货币逐步紧缩,各地政府遏制房地产市场急剧增长的行政措施,以及4万亿人民币(约合6423亿美元)经济刺激计划影响的逐渐减弱,经济也因此开始逐渐减速。通货膨胀本应在2011年初就缓和下来了,然而不断上升的食物价格和商品价格打破了人们的预期。消费者物价指数的年增长率也在2011年7月达到了6.5%的最高点

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