El gran boom de África

PARÍS – África está experimentando un período de crecimiento económico sin precedentes. Según The Economist, seis de los diez países con mayor crecimiento en el año 2011 son africanos. La media de la deuda externa en el continente ha caído desde un 63% del PIB en el año 2000 hasta llegar a un 22,2% este año (Average external debt on the continent has fallen from 63% of GDP in 2000 to 22.2% this year), asimismo en la actualidad la inflación promedio se ubica en un 8%, frente al 15% en el año 2000. Es probable que esta tendencia positiva persista, tomando en cuenta que se basa en factores estructurales geográficos y demográficos, como por ejemplo el aumento de las exportaciones, mejores condiciones de comercio exterior y el constante aumento del consumo interno.

Pero los gobiernos nacionales de África aún se enfrentan a retos importantes, dada la amplia variedad de factores que se encuentran en juego en cada país. Las características económicas varían significativamente de un país al otro, por ejemplo en función de si se tiene establecido un régimen de cambio de divisas fijo o flotante, y cuáles recursos naturales se encuentran bajo el control del país.

Como resultado, las perspectivas también difieren según el país. Si bien se ha pronosticado que la tasa media anual de crecimiento del PIB para todo el continente llegue a aproximadamente un 6% en el año 2012, se espera que la economía de Sudáfrica crezca sólo un 3,6%, mientras que según los pronósticos el PIB de Costa de Marfil crecerá a una tasa del 8,5%. Con el fin de adaptar las políticas económicas nacionales de manera efectiva, las autoridades responsables del diseño de políticas deben identificar, en cada país, los factores que impulsan el crecimiento, como también las barreras al mismo.

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