Folgenschweres Tauwetter

MOSKAU – Während des Kalten Krieges haben die Sowjetunion und, auf sanftere Art, die Vereinigten Staaten den Aktivitäten anderer Staaten und Gesellschaften von außen Grenzen gesetzt, was seit langem bestehende Konflikte zwischen kleineren Ländern „einfrieren“ ließ. Nach dem Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion in den 1990er-Jahren begannen diese Konflikte „aufzutauen“.

Die ohnehin schon spannungsgeladenen interethnischen Beziehungen ließen Jugoslawien als erstes Land im Krieg versinken. Bald danach brach zwischen Armenien und Aserbaidschan Krieg aus, gefolgt von Kampfhandlungen in Transnistrien und Tschetschenien. Während einige Konflikte angegangen wurden – letzten Endes intervenierte der Westen militärisch im ehemaligen Jugoslawien, Russland kämpfte fast zehn Jahre lang in Tschetschenien und befriedete Transnistrien – wurde andere, wie zwischen Armenien und Aserbaidschan, einfach wieder eingefroren.

Glücklicherweise sind nicht alle potenziellen Konflikte ausgebrochen. Die Sowjetunion ist nicht in Gewalt versunken, wie die meisten anderen Imperien – ein Ausgang, der wohl nichts Geringerem als göttlicher Fügung oder reinem Glück zu verdanken ist. Trotz zunehmender nationalistischer Tendenzen und wechselseitigem Misstrauen ist es auch mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern dank ihrer raschen Aufnahme in die NATO und die Europäische Union gelungen, Konflikte zu vermeiden.

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