Désastreux dégels

MOSCOU – Pendant la Guerre froide, l’Union soviétique, et dans une moindre mesure les Etats-Unis, ont imposé des limites aux activités des sociétés et des États, entraînant le « gel » d’anciens conflits entre des pays plus petits. A la suite de l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique dans les année 1990, ces différends ont commencé à « dégeler ».

La Yougoslavie, où les tensions interethniques étaient déjà vives, fut le premier pays à être morcelé par les conflits. Peu après, une guerre a éclaté entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan, suivie d’affrontements en Tchétchénie et en Transnistrie. Bien que certains conflits aient fait l’objet d’une intervention – l’Occident a fini par s’interposer militairement en Yougoslavie, tandis que la Russie a mené une guerre de presque dix ans en Tchétchénie et imposé la paix en Transnistrie – d’autres conflits, comme celui entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan, ont simplement été à nouveau gelés.

Fort heureusement, tous les conflits potentiels n’ont pas éclaté. L’Union soviétique ne s’est pas désintégrée dans la violence – une issue qui ne peut s’expliquer que par une intervention divine ou le fruit du hasard. Malgré la montée en puissance des sentiments nationalistes et une méfiance réciproque, les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale ont également évité le pire, grâce à leur adhésion rapide à l’Otan et à l’Union européenne.

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