致命的解冻

莫斯科—冷战期间,苏联和美国(手段相对较温和)为国家和社会的活动设定了外部限制,这让小国之间的长期冲突都“冻结”起来了。随着20世纪90年代苏联的解体,这些冲突开始“解冻”。

内部对峙不断升级的南斯拉夫成为第一个因冲突而消亡的国家。不久后,亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间爆发战争,随后,特涅斯特沿岸(Transdniestria)和车臣之间也燃起了战火。一些冲突得到了解决——最终,西方以武力干预前南斯拉夫;而俄罗斯对车臣动武已逾十年,也给特涅斯特沿岸带来了和平——但其他冲突,如亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间的冲突,仅仅被再次冻结了。

幸运的是,并非所有的潜在冲突都爆发了。苏联的解体并没有像大部分帝国那样带来乱战——对于这样的结果,似乎也只有命运之神眷顾可以解释。尽管民族主义情绪渐浓、互相怀疑之风日盛,中东欧国家也设法避免了冲突,这主要是因为它们很快地被北约和欧盟接受了。

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